Reposted from: https://www.floorcoveringweekly.com/main/features/every-step-counts-43757?utm_medium=email&utm_source=FCW-NL-Daily
Date: Tuesday,  Oct 9, 2024
Author: Sharyn Bernard

Every Step Counts

Wednesday, October 9, 2024

By Sharyn Bernard

AHSG, Commercial USA members mark success

[Naples, Fla.] American Home Surfaces Group (AHSG) and Commercial USA leaders and members gathered for their biannual meeting here last month to tackle tough issues, share best practices and enjoy the camaraderie that comes from nearly 300 members coming together.

Tony Wright, president, said that since the organization’s last convention two years ago, AHSG has added more than 60 new members and Commercial USA has added 36 new members. There also are 14 new aligned suppliers, including AHF, Southwind Building Products, Lions Floor, Happy Feet, Johnson Hardwood and others.

“We think that’s fantastic,” Wright said. “We’re going to continue to grow and bring in new business owners wo want to affiliate and align with ours. We’ve also been growing with our purchasing and aligned suppliers. At the end of the day, their business is like your business, they want to see growth.”

Wright noted that purchasing growth with aligned suppliers rose 12 percent from 2022 to 2023, following double digit growth during the COVID years. “The more you focus and can bring on our suppliers to your business, the stronger we get.”

Vendors at the convention were enthusiastic about the AHSG and Commercial USA business, particularly since the groups are combined. “This is one of the best shows,” said Robb Myer, vice president of Aladdin Commercial at Mohawk. “I like the interaction with both the residential and commercial side.”

TJ Curtain, national buying group manager for Happy Feet, said the company joined the group to add new business and different partnerships. “We joined since we decided to get into commercial,” he said. “They have really active members and are easy to work with.”

Patrick Warren, vice president of Daltile, said the company has partnered with AHSG since its inception 25 years ago. He noted that the company is thriving equally in its three main businesses — commercial, residential and remodeling — and its business with AHSG and Commercial USA is strong. What’s more, Warren worked with Wright at Daltile and said Wright will help AHSG grow even more. “Tony will take them in a new direction for all the businesses. You can feel the energy here.”

Drew Hash, CEO of Southwind, another new vendor partner, also said the quality of the AHSG members is high. “This is a great cross-section of dealers, from single family to multifamily to commercial. It’s a unique group.”

From left Dean Carter of Quality Floor Covering, Andy Korytowski of SCI Floor Covering, Diane Ouzounian of Alpine Floor Coverings and Scott Wierson of Real Floors Commercial, participated in a compelling panel of commercial flooring dealers, moderated by Jon Petz, a motivational speaker who also was the opening keynote speaker at the convention.

Economic Forecast

Joe Seydl, executive director and senior market economist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank, gave a keynote address about the state of the economy, noting that the all the predictions of the U.S. falling into a recession this year have proved false.

“Economists love to use the word ‘great’ with everything,” he said. “We have the Great Depression, the Great Recession. I like to call [period] the Great Freakout, where if you go back to the end of 2022 and early 2023, you had more than a 60 percent probability that the U.S. economy would go into recession in 2023. And that didn’t happen. The U.S. economy has held up remarkably well over the last 12 to 18 months.”

Seydl explained that the reality is what he calls an investment recession. “The consumer has held up very resiliently. In 2022 we went through a downturn in investment, but consumer spending held up and has been very steady all throughout. So, it is very hard to get a U.S. recession without a consumer recession.” He said consumers have strong balance sheets and are spending, albeit more on travel and other areas than in the home.

While Seydl was reluctant to predict a future economic picture, he said the drop in inflation and in interest rates are good indicators. “I don’t want to say the risk of [inflation] is completely gone, but the risks of inflation running above the Fed’s target have come down significantly over the last 12 months.” He added that he expects the Fed to eventually cut the interest rate to 3.5 percent, which will bring mortgage rates down and help fuel housing purchases.

He said even though some economists predict a recession, or even depression, by 2030, he doesn’t worry about it. “I think it’s almost impossible to look out that far. What is the likelihood in the next 12 months of recession? We think the probability of that is 25 percent, so we have 75 percent odds of no recession in the next 12 months. I’m not saying there will be a recession, but I think for the next couple of years I am not that concerned.”

Editor’s Note

FCW moderated a panel at the AHSG convention. Full coverage of the panel will appear in the next issue of the magazine.

Tory Wright of AHSG with his wife Ann

Happy Feet International’s TJ Curtain and Guy Gazzilli

Stacy and Steven Wright of Flooring Direct with Joe and Theresa Weber of AHSG

Keynote speaker Joe Seydi of J.P. Morgan Private Bank

Drew Hash of Southwind, Scott Humphrey of WFCA and Randy Lovelace of Southwind

Andrea and John Bergamo of Ideal Floor and Design with Phillip and Andrea Messina of Messina’s Flooring & Carpet

Matt Crossken and Jenn Fallows of Mae Flooring with Lindsay and Marc Silverman of Tile It & More

Daltile’s Todd Eaton, Kelly Swint, Steven Facca, Whitney Welch and Patrick Warren